The New Jersey Effect: Why Scott Brown Can Win
“There is no way in hell we’re going to elect a Republican to Ted Kennedy’s seat” – Massachusetts Congressman and former Democrat Senatorial candidate Mike Capuano.
A Republican running for office in Massachusetts begins the race about 20 yards back from the starting line. That’s because the Dems have a three-to-one advantage over the GOP in the voter registration department. It’s a mystery why. Thanks to the hard work of our all-Democrat Congressional delegation, Massachusetts ranks 40th among the states for Federal Spending Received per Dollar of Tax Paid (source: The Tax Foundation). Still we keep registering for their party and returning them to Washington.
But I digress. The dirty secret is that the majority of Bay State voters are neither Republicans nor Democrats; they’re unenrolled in either party. Win enough of these independents and you win Massachusetts.
In the last off-year elections, 2006, Bay State independents were about evenly divided between Democrat Gubernatorial candidates Deval Patrick and Republican Kerry Healey. But there are two good reasons to think that they will swing to the GOP in 2010.
First, that’s what they did in New Jersey last month. New Jersey’s electorate looks a lot like Massachusetts’s: Democrats have an overwhelming advantage over Republicans in voter registration, but around half of all voters are independents. Like Massachusetts, New Jersey independents were about evenly split in 2006. But in 2009 they overwhelmingly supported Republican candidate Chris Christie over Democrat John Corzine. In spite of the classy campaign run by Gov. Corzine (he ran adds accusing the overweight Christie of “throwing his weight around”), a 60-30 margin among independents gave Christie the edge he needed to become the first Garden State Republican to be elected Governor since 1997.
Second, polls show that, nationally, independent voters are increasingly sympathetic to Republican views on the issues. For example a November 27th Rasmussen polls shows independents oppose Obamacare 59% to 37%. A late June poll on climate change shows 57% think that “keeping the cost of energy as low as possible” is more important than “developing clean, environmentally friendly sources of energy”.
If independents vote Republican in Massachusetts in January the way they did in New Jersey in November, the Brown vs. Coakley race is a dead heat. Sorry, Congressman – looks like there is a way in hell we’re going to elect a Republican to Ted Kennedy’s seat.
A Republican running for office in Massachusetts begins the race about 20 yards back from the starting line. That’s because the Dems have a three-to-one advantage over the GOP in the voter registration department. It’s a mystery why. Thanks to the hard work of our all-Democrat Congressional delegation, Massachusetts ranks 40th among the states for Federal Spending Received per Dollar of Tax Paid (source: The Tax Foundation). Still we keep registering for their party and returning them to Washington.
But I digress. The dirty secret is that the majority of Bay State voters are neither Republicans nor Democrats; they’re unenrolled in either party. Win enough of these independents and you win Massachusetts.
In the last off-year elections, 2006, Bay State independents were about evenly divided between Democrat Gubernatorial candidates Deval Patrick and Republican Kerry Healey. But there are two good reasons to think that they will swing to the GOP in 2010.
First, that’s what they did in New Jersey last month. New Jersey’s electorate looks a lot like Massachusetts’s: Democrats have an overwhelming advantage over Republicans in voter registration, but around half of all voters are independents. Like Massachusetts, New Jersey independents were about evenly split in 2006. But in 2009 they overwhelmingly supported Republican candidate Chris Christie over Democrat John Corzine. In spite of the classy campaign run by Gov. Corzine (he ran adds accusing the overweight Christie of “throwing his weight around”), a 60-30 margin among independents gave Christie the edge he needed to become the first Garden State Republican to be elected Governor since 1997.
Second, polls show that, nationally, independent voters are increasingly sympathetic to Republican views on the issues. For example a November 27th Rasmussen polls shows independents oppose Obamacare 59% to 37%. A late June poll on climate change shows 57% think that “keeping the cost of energy as low as possible” is more important than “developing clean, environmentally friendly sources of energy”.
If independents vote Republican in Massachusetts in January the way they did in New Jersey in November, the Brown vs. Coakley race is a dead heat. Sorry, Congressman – looks like there is a way in hell we’re going to elect a Republican to Ted Kennedy’s seat.
posted by Michael Isenberg at
8:57 PM
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